NxtVeeru, Friday, February 11, 2022
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Altcoin Sherpa here with the crypto market review as always this is not financial advice i am not an expert to your own research okay so bitcoin is doing really well lately and everybody’s very excited to see it um is this the bottom uh where are my thoughts on the market uh i’m just gonna review bitcoin today so let’s get to it so um i don’t think this is the overall macro bottom and the reason for that is that bitcoin has only had kind of a v-shape reversal um since uh in march 2020 over the last few years typically speaking bottoms take a really long time to form and you’ll know if you’ve watched a lot of my other videos you’ll know that i’ve kind of made this observation quite a bit the last bottom that we had was in may in june and july of 2021 this one took a few months to form and more importantly you’ll notice that price got wicked into demand quite a bit so you saw a lot of wicks and a lot of moves in this demand area around 30k we haven’t really seen that quite yet there have been any wicks there’s just kind of been the slow grind down and there hasn’t been another return to this demand area around 33k if this is the bottom i do expect 33 to 34k to get tapped again

I think it’s very likely let’s look a little bit at some other macro bottoms um in the last few years the last significant one after june uh july of 2021 in my opinion was this macro bottom in march 2020. this was a v-shaped reversal this one was an anomaly for several reasons number one so many people got liquidated on this move um and this was like almost like a black swan event for crypto like this was generally very scary i thought like bitcoin could have had a chance to go to zero but so many people got wiped out on this move down and with the infinite money printer situation that followed it was just like an up only situation where the lows never really got tapped again but this again was an anomaly compared to the last few years going back further more uh further to the infamous 6k level uh you know 6k was this uh support level that was tapped over and over again in 2018 and what did we need we needed one last final shakeout this was a nasty fall from the 6k to 3k level followed by a long accumulation period where this lasted a very long time okay

So those are the last three kind of bottoms that we saw and you know there’s a lot of other types of mini bottoms that you can see as well through bitcoin’s price history for instance uh you know this was like kind of early uh 2020. this one again this was not necessarily um a macro bottom but it still took quite a while to form you know it still took uh over a month so what am i trying to say here i’m trying to say that uh when bitcoin bottoms out over its recent price history you’ll see that price often takes a long time to form a bottom and you’ll often see you know price revisit kind of the area that it initially um wicks to now contextually i don’t expect this to look exactly like may 2021 this was much more of a just total market nuke all in one go whereas what we’ve seen over the last um few months of this type of price history just reminds me very much more similar to 2018 where this is just a slow grind down and you’re not seeing like

A massive liquidation like we saw back in may may you just get killed like in like a few days or a week or whatever and that was that this you’re seeing much more of like a typical bearish market structure where we’ve seen lower highs and lower lows all the way down now if this is the bottom i am expecting another wick down to return down to 33 34 30 32 k or something like that um don’t know what it’s going to look like but it would make a lot of sense to me and if you look back to see uh kind of this june last shakeout that bitcoin had it went negative 30 percent because it tapped the range highs and then it obviously went down lower high one last slow grind down to the lows around 29k and then we obviously know what happened next it reversed so to me what would make sense would be to see uh some sort of like low or high formed that’s almost certainly going to happen like a lower high like i think it’s highly highly unlikely that we just like v shape up and then like go up to like 70k um i think it’s very unlikely for that like with the way that price looks

Now i think it’s much more likely that price will hit a lower high anywhere from 47 to 50 low 50ks there’s a lot of confidence with that level area you can see this 200 ema around 47k high volume node right here so typically speaking this is going to be a lot of confluence for a resistance level and um it’s it’s very it’s almost as i said it’s almost um it’s a near certainty that price will have a lower high i don’t know where it’s going to be either 47 50 um even now like 44k to me it’s very important to see where the low is set because if we see some sort of higher low similar to what we saw back in september so for example we hit a consolidation period first a few months hit some sort of lower high in september obviously 53k but what was important here was we found a higher low and to me this was very important in the sense that we hit a higher low relative to some of the lows back in june and july and once we cleanly broke 53k that would to me was a bullish market structure confirmation because we have a higher high at this point right higher higher at that point and higher low

So to me what i’m looking for here is some sort of like um i’m looking for where this high set it’s going to be lower high i don’t know where it’s going to be 47 50k it’s gonna pull back and if it hits some sort of higher low then then i’m willing to start considering a bullish market structure at that point until that time i think that it would make a lot of sense personally if price you know went 47 50 or so came back down had some weak bounces and eventually retap this 33 to 34k area as a low entirely possible that this 34 to 33k area is low but if it is then i do want to see another return back to those levels again i want to see price look down i want to see some volatility and of course this bottom is going to look different than the may bottom of course or the major and july bottom and you know just from a market structure perspective this type of price action that you see here the slow grind down is much different than this nuke the straight market nuke where it’s just an elevator down

So i think that every reversal is going to look different i i realize that i acknowledge that but for me personally i still believe that bitcoin you’ll just have to look at the price history of it chopping around for a long time and um just holding true to that idea that it takes a long time for bottoms to form uh just given overall history of bitcoin and i’ll continue to stick to that history until showing otherwise so you know if we just start v shape reversing then i’m very very surprised but as i said before i am very interested in seeing a return to the 33 35k level so what’s my plan from here my plan currently is to go ahead and de-risk a little bit higher on 47 to 50k i’ll be selling a lot of my some of my all positions at that point and what’s very important for you guys to understand is that just because you sell an altcoin doesn’t mean that you necessarily hate the project you can actually still love the project you can just make a lot more money by compounding your position what do i mean by that is you can sell a little bit higher i don’t know 47k and then you just buy more of that same coin with with the bitcoin or usd that you sold you just buy more of that coin on a dip you can compound your position

And this is a good way of staying in your position uh you know and really still um acquiring more coins and um you know staying quote-unquote loyal to the project an exit doesn’t necessarily have to mean that you’re exiting for good so as i said i am viewing some sort of lower high i don’t know where it’s going to be and after that i’ll be looking this to buy some dips on some all coins that i like i’m looking at like near and other coins but uh it is it is possible that this is the bottom uh i mean i personally was looking at like 28k or so i i still think it’s it’s possible i don’t know if it’s going to happen but um with macro looking the way it is you know it’s it’s very uncertain this was a demanded area and this weekly area was an area that everybody was looking at and this 35k area was very very interesting and very um a strong weekly level but to me it’s still a bit early to say if this is like the bottom you know as i said i i think that bottoms take a long time to form

And i think that we’re still going to see another revisit to the 33 k levels at a minimum 33 34 whatever around that area 30 maybe um 35k you know just around that area it doesn’t have to have to be precise but um but yeah that’s kind of my overall like thought process uh in regards to bitcoin the next level up in my opinion as i said would be like this 47k area um you can see the weekly candle closes around that time period and after that of course like this 52k area as well but you know still a lot of time before that time there’s a lot of like price action before it gets that point so i’m just taking it kind of level level i do have my bids lower too just in case like we do get a nasty wick down to 28k or whatever um but for now i think that like i am viewing like this 28k i’m sorry not 20. i am doing this uh 48k 47k area and low 50s so that’s kind of my overall thought on bitcoin for right now i do think that um i am looking for like where the lowest at that  that’s my biggest really my biggest next thing is i fully expect it to still go to 47 to 50k or whatever.

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