NxtVeeru, Thursday, February 10, 2022
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BTC Analysics

we are just going to review btc usd on the one day uh is this the bottom i’m not sure personally i don’t believe so but if it is then you should get another opportunity around 33k and the reason why i say that is that because if you look at previous um bottoms that is are formed on bitcoin you’ll see that price almost always likes to come back to close to the wick as you can see back here this is the may consolidation period you had plenty of opportunities to long 30k and price came back to that level several times again back in september back uh you can see price book down initially for this big liquidation run from 50 to 42 and then again had another drive down but as it found the bottom close to 40k you had plenty of opportunities to get to that point again similarly back in january once again price wick down to 30k and once again you had several opportunities to long this area and if you go back to previous price points of bitcoin you’ll also see for previous bottoms that price likes to just consolidate and it takes a long time for bottoms to form in general it’s very rare that it’s it’s an overnight v-shaped reversal with the exception of march 2020 this was obviously a v-shaped reversal and this was a black swan event that nobody really could have predicted um lots and lots of liquidity was collected here so hence you just saw this like vertical accumulation period where price just kept going up went from 3k to 10k within the span of just a few months.

And that’s very unprecedented in bitcoin’s price history so if this is in fact the bottom right here uh for bitcoin you know if price is going to bottom out around 33k i do believe that you’ll get more opportunities to come to that level um you know price is going to come back to that level uh eventually and um while i understand the context of these previous bottoms are different nonetheless it does take a while for bottoms to form as i said and in order for the bottoms to really be a bottom you really want to see some wicks into the band area and so you can see here back in june and july this was a classic btc bottom where there were a lot of wicks down and you know price was getting uh there were a lot of bids getting filled in that area and that’s one reason why i was a little bit scared when i started to analyze this a little bit closer i didn’t really see any wicks filling this area out and that’s a little bit scary you know this was much more a concentrated control to grind down which is not really indicative of a bottom in my opinion it’s it’s it’s a little bit scarier so um what i’m trying to say here is that if this is in fact the bottom round 33k i do expect that you’ll get another entry at 33k .

I think that that’s going to come it does take a long time for bottoms to form and what you want to initially see for bottom to form is you want to see a lot of initial volatility there’s a lot of volatility following this big crash you know so you’ll see like typically big leg down liquidation cascade and then you’ll see like lots of volatility chop in both directions lower highs lower lows etc and then you’ll eventually want to see price kind of slowly even out volatility to die and um volume to decrease that’s really very indicative of a bottom so what i like to see here is i would like to see price make some sort of lower high um you know maybe up to like now i don’t know it’s like quite possible that now it just goes lower it’s possible that it goes up makes its way up to 42. i don’t really know but what i’d like to see is a lot more volatility where we see a lot more shakeouts i don’t like this slow grind down um i want to see more volatility is what i’m trying to say because once you start to see volatility with some crazy wicks in both directions with high volume that’s when you start to know that people are getting chopped and that’s really where you’re looking for a bottom to form so again

I’m not exactly sure if this is the bottom i’m personally still viewing like some one last final shakeout um it would make a lot more sense to me you know if this did grind higher i don’t know if mid-40s or something and then boom you go like down to 30k that would make a lot of sense to me and that’s like one kind of final shakeout um that you’d see that’s very common in these types of moves um like so for instance if you compare it to like this june july consolidation period you obviously saw this huge huge huge wick down right like you know we saw this big nasty price action from basically um you know for a week straight of may 10 to like may you know 19th or so a little bit more than a week where you saw market destruction from 60 to 40 or 60 to 30k and then price chopped around for quite some time you know we got everybody got very bullish near this top of the range period when in fact price had one final shake out thirty percent down before

It really found its bottom of course you know it had one final shakeout slow grind lower high and then another grind lower but to me this would make a lot more sense um where we see some sort of like volatility here like a lot of chop here and then we make our uh way up to one last final time up to like mid 40ks and then one final shakeout to like 30k or something like that 28k i don’t know um that would make a lot of sense to me personally um but nonetheless i do believe that price is going to go lower than it is today in the future i don’t know where or when but i feel very confident that price will at least revisit the 33ks again just because you see you know these lows getting tapped over and over and this is very common for a bottom to form so how should that dictate your strategy i mean it really depends on what strategy you’re using to invest or trade there are a lot of small micro moves right now that you can take like you know there’s a lot of people that bought a lot yesterday and they are going to sell again today like you can really make a lot of money with these um these small moves especially with all coins because they pulled back so far um but but it really depends on your strategy as i said like you know this this um for me personally like my strategies i bought yesterday uh on a red day

And i sold like uh three quarters of my position today um i’m just just kind of scalping that but again i i’m already underwater from like my near entries uh which decently higher so you know i’m just going to dollar cost average in and then look to de-risk higher because i do believe that eventually um we will see a lower high up to like 50k i’m pretty damn confident about that um even if this is a true bear market like i think that it just makes more sense to get everybody very bullish um you know we chop around and then go up to like 50k and then potentially go lower like that would make a lot more sense to me uh personally just because i mean we’ve been nothing but pretty much down from all the way from 70k this has just been a slow grind down so i think that there needs to be liquidity collected higher and i think that this would make a lot more sense if this goes lower with that said if we can continue to chop around um here 28k

this area if we continue to chop around for quite some time like several weeks or even months which is kind of what i’m expecting then i think at the bottom is the overall in because if it is a true bear market i expect it to look very much like this overall price action that we’re seeing now the slow concentrated grind down this bear this price action that we’re seeing all throughout november december 2021 this is very similar to if you look back at you know kind of this price action that we saw back in 2018 was just a slow grind down overall there weren’t any like really big moves otherwise there weren’t any consolidation periods either but again i think that the market has changed since 2018 maybe this time is different i don’t really know if um you know i don’t personally see this price action playing out the same way as 2018 personally for a lot of reasons like you know this was a parabolic run obviously from 5k to 20k

it really didn’t have any consolidation periods whereas contextually um all throughout 2020 was spent accumulating basically for bitcoin that’s why it went so strong all the way from like 10k to 60k is because it had these long long accumulation periods where price did nothing but chop around and that’s why all coins flourished so hard in 2020 was because it had these long consolidation periods furthermore we also saw a consolidation period uh in january all throughout the summer september and then i’m hoping f we see a consolidation period here so for me personally like 28k is the level that i’m viewing um you know

if we just straight keep continue to break down from this current level without any pull like without any lower highs then i’m very concerned like obviously i’m very concerned like you know if we just continue this concentrated slow grind down um and if if 20 if we see this grind down through 28k that to me would be very [ __ ] scary um what i’d like to see personally if this is the bottom is i would like to see some sort of like lower high formed at like 44k a quick quick down to 28k 27k i don’t know where it’s going to be tons of volatility and then like a cooling period at that point this is what i would love to see for a bottom deform um but if instead you get like this kind of like a bunch of smaller lower highs and just like slowly grind down with like you know kind of like this grinding price action that we’ve seen all throughout november december this is very very very concerning this would result in macro conditions being very bad in my opinion and bitcoin um whether you believe in it or not is like a store value it is still a risk-on asset so anyway those that’s kind of my overall idea for bitcoin i am viewing um around this area to be the bottom but you know i’m still waiting for 30k personally or around there 27 to 30k or whatever i mean

it’s like pretty much like all the same in my opinion um that’s kind of my overall idea for bitcoin right now but i do feel confident that you will get lower if like if you’re if you’re feeling fomo now don’t feel fomo because you’re going to get a lower entry at 34 35 or 34 33 if you want it and you can also um you’ll get your time and then you’ll also have like plenty of time to do it too depending on the context look i do believe that we’re going to see like a long time for this bottom to form just because it does take a while i would say at least a month personally but that’s kind of my opinion anyways .

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